Daily Fantasy Strategy

Really good week overall Bell and Gaffney came through strong and I won my fair share with them. Tebow did OK but had 4 INTs that limited him, which limited Thomas’ scoring as well. Celek did fine with 2/52 and a TD. My late pick of Mendenhall was big, Morris was an avoid once FJones was active and the same goes for VBrown once VJax was active.

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Week 17 is always a weird week in the NFL as many teams seasons are effectively over or they are resting for playoffs. You MUST keep an eye out for last second scratches on Sunday. There were many top players listed on injury reports and if they are already in the playoffs and something doesnt feel right during warm ups, they could sit. Make sure you follow me on Twitter: (click here to follow), and you can get some last minute news from the hot-wire, straight off the field.

Besides Brady, Newton, Manning and Stafford, I really can only go with one guy and here he comes again, folks:

Tim Tebow vs KC ($8200/$14350) Coming off what is probably his worst game of his life, Tim takes the Broncos playoff hopes into his hands in front of the home crowd. KC has the 14th ranked pass D that is 18th vs the Rush. Tim had 43y rushing and a TD in their first meeting. Look for more rushing and hopefully rushing TDs for Tebow vs KC.

CJ Spiller @ NE ($6900/$10950) Spiller has emerged the last two weeks with huge games against decent Ds (MIA & DEN) that included 3TDs. He now faces a much weaker D with NE and should see the ball a lot. Just hope Brady doesn’t put up too many points in the first half, relishing the Bills to throw the ball for the remainder of the game.

Kahlil Bell @ MIN ($5300/$7230) Bell was on the list last week and came through with 23 carries, 121yrds and 4rec for 38yards, and now he faces a MIN team that give up the 10th most fantasy points to running backs. Look for Bell to have a similar game and hopefully find the end zone this week.

Beyond Welker, Megatron, Cruz I do not trust too many other players at WR this week. But these three carry high price tags, so you’ll have to get someone in there to level your salaries.

Denarius Moore vs SD ($5100/$6790) The rookie showed flashes last week of what we saw when he was healthy earlier in the season. Oakland is playing for their playoff lives and Palmer will be targeting Moore vs the beat up secondary of SD which ranks 27th vs the Pass. Moore had his best game of the year vs SD in week 10 with 5 rec/123yrds/2TDs, this was before he was hurt. Look for him to break out here, great value with the decent performance he had last week.

Other than the New England TEs, I only have one more pick and that’s:

Jared Cook @ HOU ($5300$7300) Houston has really nothing to play for and will take all the rest they can. Cook blew up last week with 8rec/168yrds/1TD and I did have him in a few line ups, honestly. Not sure why I kept him off my blog, I guess I didnt trust him completely. Against HOU second string D, we should see a lot of Cook again. Look for a decent game here, hopefully he can stretch the game.

Quick Pick K&D: Ryan Succop @ DEN ($5300/$5000), Jacsonville vs IND ($5000/$5540)

Good luck this week!

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Rashard Mendenhall vs STL ($7100/$9360) Mendenhall has had a spotty season but Big Ben is out this week and the game plan has to be pound the ball with Mendy vs the 25th ranked STL run D. With this fair price he’s sure to show value.

Vincent Brown @ DET ($4800/$6830) It looks like Brown’s namesake counterpart, Vincent Jackson is going to be on the sideline tomorrow. When Malcolm Floyd went down early this year, Brown emerged. So if you feel like taking a gamble, he’s has a great matchup in what looks to be a fantasy football bonanza vs DET.

Sammy Morris vs PHI ($4600/$3000) Another injury flyer with Felix Jones limited in practice this week. Morris looked good last week with 53yrds on 12 carries, and he can catch the ball out of the backfield as well.

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Felix Jones faired well enough for his, $6400/$9770, price tag with 108 RuYds, 3rec, 23 ReYds and Reggie Bush amazed with his 203 RuYds, 1Rec, 6ReYds, 1TD, 1FL.

Donald Driver didnt do much but managed a TD on just 2rec, 7yrds, which is fine when you can fit other top line players in your lineup. Titus Young was OK as well with 4 RuYds, 5Rec, 21ReYds and 1TD.

Finely dropped as many balls as he caught as Green Bay lost for the first time with 3rec, 83ReYds which was not great but not a total fail. Evan Moore was the big fail of the day with a total goose egg on one target.

Onto this weeks picks:

Other than Brees, Newton, Brady, Stafford and Rivers, I dont trust any other QBs in my lineup this week but there is one to look at…

Tim Tebow @ BUF ($8300/$14350) OK Timmay is not the cheapest but the BUF D is terrible and Tim should rush for 100yrds here. Starting off with that strong rushing total is a big underlining, BUF D is 27th vs the Pass and 28th vs the Rush. Tim Tebow gets a lot of flack but one thing that has been consistent is his fantasy production.

Arian Foster, Ray Rice, MJD and McCoy all have great match ups but they are pricey so you have to find some cheap picks to get them into your line up.

Kahlil Bell @ GB ($5300/$7230) Bell showed up last week as Chicago’s go to guy. He led the team in rushing and receiving a week after Marion Barber basically fumbled and failed away the game vs Denver the week before. On top of that, Barber missed Wednesday practice for an undisclosed reason. Bell might fit the Mike Martz system a bit better and now faces Green Bay’s 30th ranked rushing D which lines up for value at his low price.

Jabar Gaffney vs MIN ($6200/$8680) Say what you will about the Redskins pass game and Jabbar Gaffney, but he’s about to have a 1000y season, on a near 70 receptions. Jabar is consistently the team leader targets and now faces the worst Passing D in the NFL with MIN at home.

Demaryius Thomas @ BUF ($5700/$10325) Thomas has been the guy for Tebow to throw to for the last three weeks. This should be the case again vs the 27th ranked passing D of Buffalo.

Brent Celek @ DAL ($5600/$8345) Celek had a huge game last week (5rec, 156yrds, 1TD) with Vick returning to form. Now they have a big game with their season on the line (yes the dream team can technically make the playoffs) vs the 22nd ranked D vs TEs.

Quick pick K&D: Matt Bryant ($5300/$5625), PIT vs STL ($5800/$5800)

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Good luck this week and Happy Holidays,
Joe

Titus Young @ OAK ($5500/$7125) Titus Young has been coming on as of late and such is a young receiver late in the season. It takes a long time for players to learn NFL systems and fing their roles. Young’s targets have ticked up and is coming off a 4 rec, 81 yrds, 1TD game on 7 targets. It’s not the greatest match up vs OAK but this game should be a shoot out.

Evan Moore @ ARI ($4900/$3920) Ben Watson is on IR with his 3rd concussion of the season. Moore has seen an uptick in production the last two weeks, which included a TD. However, as I write this I’m see McCoy is out and Senaca Wallace will be in. Wallace has two completions this year on two attempts, one of those is to Moore. (LOL sample size.) Looking back at some of Wallace’s starts over the last years, he does seem to feed the TE a bit. Moore might be worth a gamble here with such a cheap price.

WOW do I LOVE the Arizona D now, CLE gives up a decent amount of FFpts to opponent Ds and now has the back up QB starting.

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My late picks did OK and my overall picks did really well, except Jason Witten (3 rec, 12y), who killed me in many line ups from making a big score (along with Calvin Johnson).

Aromashodu went 4 rec, 47 yrds which is fine for $3000 on DraftDay and Tate fell short on 3 rec, 39 yrds on 7 targets. Its good to see the targets and he’s one to watch down the stretch, he had one carry for 14 yrds so he wasnt a complete bust. Damian Williams had a mediocre day and nearly broke a big one where he was brought down by his face mask as he has likely to head to the endzone, Williams had 2 rec, 62 yrds but one good sign was his 10 targets.

Gaffney (6 rec, 92 yrds, 1TD), Barber (27 carries, 108 yrds, 1 TD, 2 rec, 32 yrds, 1 FL) and Grossman (19/32 252 yrds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 1 FL) came through strong for their prices.

As you can see my line ups centered around Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew and it paid off. When you have players who are going to get 30 touches in a great match up, you have to get them in your line up. How do you do that? You find cheap picks that will not hurt you and that could help you with good match ups. And with that, on to the picks…

I really dont have a QB in my line ups other than Drew Brees, Rdogers, Brady or Stafford. I was going to consider Rex Grossman again @ NYG, but the Giants got something going last week after an epic win, so I’m staying away.

Felix Jones @ TD ($6400/$9770) DeMarco Murray is done for the year. After he went down Jones ran like a man possessed last week as he ran for 106 yrds on 16 carries. He caught a whopping 6 receptions on 7 targets out of the back field for 31 yrds. Now he faces the 25th ranked rushing TD that is 27th vs RB receptions.

Reggie Bush @ BUF ($7400/$10180) Bush is having the best year of his career. Now he faces the 26th ranked rushing D and should be an integral part of the game plan getting over 20 touches after his 103 yrd, 5 rec, 27 yrd game last week.

Donald Driver @ KC ($5300/$6430) Rodger’s main man Greg Jennings is out but Driver is his old go to guy. Driver had 6 targets for 4 rec, 74 yrds last week. Jennings targets will likely be distributed but Driver could see an good uptick. I like him as a possession receiver that Rodgers can lean against the 21st ranked passing D in the league, KC.

Damien Williams @ IND ($5200/$8050) Yes, he’s back again and seems to be a weekly feature here. Hasselback is slated to start and we all know the IND-D is the worst in the league. Looking for the kid to break loose here and get a big score.

Jermichael Finley @ KC ($6100/$8615) Another benefit to Greg Jennings being out. Finely is a match up nightmare versus the KC-D which is 27th ranked against TEs.

Quick pick K&D: Ryan Longwell vs NO ($5000/$5205), Arizona vs CLE ($5000/$5935)

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Some last picks for your ($FanDuel/$DraftDay) lineups.

Golden Tate vs STL ($5000/$6250) Sidney Rice is on IR and Tate is now the starting #2 WR for Seattle. Tate had 4 catches on 4 targets for 47 yrds and a TD last week. Pete Caroll spoke in favor of Tate this week and it looks like they’ll try to get him the ball more. He’s got a good match up at home vs St Louis.

Devin Aromashodu @ DET ($4900/$3000) Now as I write this Ponder is a game time decision so we could see Joe Webb this week. But Aromashodu did have a whopping 15 targets this week. With the defense focused on Percy Harvin, and Adrain Peterson not at 100% (ADP still might not play), Aromashodu may be the go to target on the team. I like him much more if Ponder plays.

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I added a few late additions last week of Chaz Schilens (6 rec, 89 yrds, 0 TD) and Michael Crabtree (4 rec, 96 yrds, 1TD) so make sure you check here on Sunday morning if you do not follow me on twitter. My other match ups were TERRIBLE, everyone had Blount on top and he completely laid an egg. I watched a good chunk of the Tampa Bay game and Blount just had no pop at all, no juice, like if he was ill or just weak and going through the motions. Then Tampa got behind and started to throw getting away form an ineffective Blount. BJGE did get TD but didnt do much more, Hernandez had an OK game 7 rec, 43 yds, but Brown did not, 2 rec for 67 yds.

So I’m here to redeem myself with this weeks picks.

Rex Grossman vs NE ($6200/$9740) I love my Patriots but I can really sum this up, last week Dan Orlovsky, 30-37, 353 yds, 2 tds, 1 int. SERIOUSLY? Granted the Pats are unstoppable on Offense so they win. Rex is a much better quarterback than Orlovsky. You’ll know one thing, the Pats will score points, a lot of them, so that keeps the other team in passing mode.

You really should be figuring how to get Ray Rice, MJD, and Foster in your lineups and I really only can see taking gamble with one pick.

Marion Barber @ Den ($5600/$9420) Forte is out and Barber has been running pretty good. Now Denver D is ranked 10th vs the run but they gave up 91yds on 21 rushes and 8 rec, 41 yds to Toby Gerhart, TOBY GERHART! last week and Barber is a power ‘plodder’ like Gerhart is.

Jabar Gaffney vs NE ($5900/$7535) Fred Davis is done as he violated the substance abuse policy. Davis had 13 targets last week, those targets are going somewhere. Revis was on Gaffney last week and he shut him down, expect Gaffney to preform here against his old team.

Damian Williams vs NO ($5300/$8050)Williams has led the team in targets five out of the last six games and Nate Washington is listed as Questionable this week. New Orleans has the 28th ranked pass D and we all know they have a great offense that puts up points which will keep TEN throwing.

TE play has been pretty top-heavy as of late so I’m going with one of the top guys in nearly all my lineups.

Jason Witten vs NYG ($6800/$11415)OK yes, he’s in the top five but he’s still under priced at this level. The Giants have been hemorrhaging fantasy points to TEs and Witten gets the targets. Look for him to convert them this week.

Quick picks K&D: Janikowski ($5600/$6615), SEA vs STL (DraftDay Only/$5580), Jets vs KC ($5100/FanDuel only)

Here a few ‘grabs’ for your line ups:

Chaz Schilens @ MIA ($4800/$5180) Schiliens saw 8 targets last week from Carson Palmer. With DMoore and Ford still out he’s cheap enough to hold decent production at this price vs the 16th ranked passing-D of Miami.

Michael Crabtree vs STL ($5900/8780) Crabtree saw 9 targets and went 6/54/0 vs the #1 pass ranked D in the league. Now he faces the 13th ranked pass D. Could see an steady 10 pts with an upside of 20 which is good value.

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I had a really strange week last week. There were some crazy points scored on Monday Night: Brees, Manning, Graham, Cruz all put up HUGE fantasy points and I had Brees in a few line ups and held my own but the week was an overall loss as I didn’t have Cruz. My value picks from last week of Matt Ryan and Brandon Lloyd came through but SJax didnt do so much and Tamme was a big gamble, dropped a TD and basically failed. I was way off on my last second pick as well.

As we saw last week, Drew Brees carried fantasy teams last week. This week, Tom Brady, is in position to be that guy. The Pats are playing well, they are at home and are up against the 0-forever, former epic rivals, IND Colts. The Colts have changed their QB to Dan Orlovsky who was on the 0-16 Detroit Lions in 2008.

It’s going to be a field day for the Pats. Get Brady in all your lineups that you can. In order to do that you are going to need a few picks that are cheap but don’t crush your score.

LeGarrette Blount vs CAR ($6800/$10680) Blount has been getting the ball and running over people and JUMPING over people:

Now with the dead-last running D visiting, expect Blount to pound some points into your lineup.

BenJarvis Green-Ellis vs IND ($6500/$8370) The NE run game is tough to predict. But we should see a good amount of the law firm in this game. However, if Brady and company get up 21pts in the first quarter, you could see Shane Vereen ($4500/$3000) eating up the hapless IND D in garbage time in the 2nd half.

Mike Williams vs CAR ($6500/$8920) Tampa Mike had a whopping 11 targets last week and pulled off a decent game 6rec/84y/1TD vs a mediocre TEN D. Josh Freeman might be a question mark for Sunday but Josh Johnson has the confidence of his coach so even if Freeman is out, Tampa-Mike should hold his value.

Antonio Brown vs CIN ($6400/$10420) Brown has been a favorite target of Big Ben the last few weeks. He is facing Cincinnati has has a middle ranked pass D (15th) but near the bottom vs #2 WRs (30th). I like Brown here in a fair price to see a lot of targets and Brown can convert targets to production.

Aaron Hernandez vs IND ($6800/$11255) He’s listed as a TE, sure. And the Pats play a double-TE but Gronkowski plays the more true TE position and we find Hernandez in the slot or even the off set FB position at times. I really like Hernandez this game vs IND who is dead last vs #3 receivers, I see Brady distributing the ball a lot and Hernandez benefiting the most.

Quick pick K&D: Gostkowski vs IND ($5300/$6615), Pats D vs IND ($5000/$5395).

Yes, that’s a lot of vs IND and vs CAR but these the two worst Ds in the league who are also on the road. You have to love those match ups.

Jim Kleinsasser, TE MIN @ ATL – Ponder likes through to his TE and Rudolph out, Shiancoe hurt/limited with a hamstring.