Archive for September 30, 2011

NFL Week 4 Value Picks

Back again to give you a pick or two in your Weekly Fantasy Football lineups that allow you to put together a great team. Starting Adrian Peterson is a given every week if you could, especially this week @KC but how do you afford his hefty $9800 price tag on FanDuel? Read on!

Rex Grossman @ STL – $7100 – QBs prices have skyrocketed and it is getting tough to find a week-one Matt Stafford ($7300 in week one but now $8800). Rex has had a mediocre season so far but now he’s indoors vs the 28th ranked passing D in St Louis.

Jay Cutler vs CAR – $7700 -. I cannot believe I just typed his name out but Cutler has been slinging it this year with over 300yds in two of his three games and now faces one of the worst passing Ds, Carolina. It’s a gamble but he might get you the value at home. (Kevin Kolb vs NYG – $7500, Ben Roethlisberger @ HOU – $8200)

The next two picks are stretches but there might be something to look at since they are so cheap.

Dexter McCluster vs MIN – $5400 – Last week we saw KC start begin its season again, this time without premier RB, Jamall Charles. Old man Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster are to carry the load. McCluster saw 13 touches last week, 10 of those came in the 2nd half. McCluster out produced Jones nearly twice as much in total yards (62 to 33). KC did not score in the first half and finished with 17 points and lost by 3. Those points came in the second half when McCulster was in there getting the ball. He should become more and more of the KC offense going forward.

Kendall Hunter @ PHI – $5400 – We all know Frank Gore has a bad ankel. If Gore doesn’t start we have a bomb ready to go off in Hunter. But even if Gore does start, Hunter will still get some touches as he did last week before Gore was hurt. Hunter didn’t have fantastic numbers (9/26 RuYd, 2/12 ReYd) last week but looked good on a TD in the 4th quarter. Great price and worth the gamble this week when you have the 25th ranked rushing-D in Philly to match up against. (Others to consider: James Starks vs DEN – $6700, Tim Hightower @ STL – $6900, Cedric Benson vs BUF – $6900)

Denarius Moore vs NE – $5800 – I am a huge Pats fan but I have to admit their secondary looks terrible at the moment. Denarius Moore turned heads, including his coach’s, during the pre-season and broke out vs Buffalo two weeks ago then held his own with a nifty run play vs the Jets. Great price and great match up = valuetown.

Santonio Holmes @ BAL – $6700 – Its been a strange season for Holmes and many were high on him this year. But Baltimore has given up the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs this year so far. He is too good to keep down, has a great history vs Baltimore (TD in last five games vs Balt) and the match up is great this week at $6700. (Others to consider: (Johnny Knox vs CAR – $6200, Mario Manningham @ ARI – $6500)

Randy McMichael vs MIA – $4800 – Simple maths: McMichael replaces the best TE ever (Gates) verus the worst defense (fantasy points wise, 3rd worst rating) against the TE, Miami, in his second start. Look for Randy to have the rust out and Rivers to find him. (Jared Cook @ CLE – $4500, Greg Olsen @ CHI – $5400.)

Quick Pick kickers and Ds: Nick Novack vs MIA – $5200, Dan Bailey vs DET – $5200, Connor Barth vs IND -$5400, Atlanta Flacons @ SEA – $5000, Minnesota Vikings @ KC – $5000, TB Buccaneers vs IND – $5200.

What is FanDuel? FanDuel is fantasy sports on steroids and the largest daily fantasy sports site out there. You can enter many fantasy teams and wager on them legally. To see how this is legal check out my previous post click HERE. To get started with FanDuel, click the link or the banner and get up to a $20 deposit bonus on your first deposit.

NFL Week 3 FanDuel wrap up.

Rough weekend on FanDuel overall. I still think I’m trying to hit too many home runs in the big tournaments. I won most of my HUs. I did have a few gems that ended up in the top tournament winner line ups for sure. Here’s the disclosure:

QBs: Kolb – 13.68, Newton – 15.02, Stafford – 23.02, Rivers – 8.44. Obviously Kolb and Newton were not good enough but OK, Stafford continues to impress however it might be the last week we see him underpriced. Rivers was a HUGE disspaointment for me this week, however, we could see a better price on him this week. All of that in my next post.

RBs: Ingram – 10.5, Tate – 9.5, Thomas – 19.7, Tolbert – 5.8, Mendenhall – 6.1. Ingram did OK for his price, hopefully he allowed you to fit in a player like Calvin Johnson or Tom Brady. Daniel Thomas was a steal for his price, the rest were busts, but Tate did OK, he had a good game he just didnt have a good fantasy point game.

WRs: Nate Washington – 19.2, Nate Burelson – 2.2, Desean Jackson – 4.3, Mike Wallace – 22.9. My grand slam here was Nate Washington, he was massively underpriced ($5900) and produced big. Total fail with Burelson and DJax, Mike Wallace had a game which you would want for his price. ($7800)

TEs: Fred Davis – 2.8, Keller – 11.2, Evan Moore – 2.4, Gresham – 7.1, Scheffler – 0.9. I missed bad here but did OK with Keller. TE matchs ups are tough to pin down and the values have a big sliding scale to them.

Oddly enough my Kicker choices and D appeared in the winning combination for the big tournament:

Look for my value post later this week. Good luck!

Wonder how FanDuel is all? Check out my previous post click HERE. To get started with FanDuel, click this link or the banner and get up to a $20 deposit bonus on your first deposit.

Week 3 NFL FanDuel Value Picks

If it was not clear last week the goals of these posts are to give you a pick or two in your FanDuel lineups that allow you to put together a great team. I dont need to tell you to try to start Tom Brady, Adrain Peterson or Andre Johnson, but in order to fit their large salaries into your line ups, you’ll need a pick or two at a cheaper price to use.

If you have not tried FanDuel, don’t. It is completely additive and way too much fun, plus you can legally make money doing it. (What’s NOT TO LOVE!) To see how this is legal check out my previous post click HERE. To get started with FanDuel, click the link or the banner and get up to a $20 deposit bonus on your first deposit.

Kevin Kolb @ SEA – $7700 – I’ll be honest, I’m still a bit of a Kolb doubter but the match up is just too good. Seattle ranks 29th in passing D and Beanie Wells was dinged up in practice on Thursday so the door is open for Kolb. (Others to consider: Cam Newton vs JAC – $8000, Matthew Stafford @ MIN – $8400, Phillip Rivers vs KC – $8900)

Mark Ingram vs HOU – $5600 – Everyone has been just waiting for this kid to break out and we might finally have the game for him to do it. His first two games were vs GB and CHI. Where he saw 13 and 14 carries vs the 11th and 12th ranked rushing defenses respectively. Houston’s passing defense has been fairly solid (7th) but their rushing D is ranked 24th and gave up over 100yds on 18 attempts to another rookie RB last week, Daniel Thomas.

Ben Tate @ NO – $6400 – We all know the story by now, Arian Foster has a lingering hamstring issue left over from the preseason. Foster gave it a go last week but it seems that go was too soon. Tate has looked great so far and has received the lion’s share of carries with 23+ touches in his two games. New Orleans is ranked 25th versus the run. All signs point to this game being a high scoring game with two high power offenses, look for Tate to have a big day. (Others to consider: Daniel Thomas @ CLE – $6100, Mike Tolbert – $6600, Rashard Mendenhall – $7500)

Nate Burleson @ MIN – $6200 – He’s back again for a 2nd week in a row. I really wanted to avoid it but I poured over the WR prices and match ups and it is a tough week for value WRs. I guess that shows you how much the NFL has become a passing league with so many top WRs producing every week. Sooner or later defensive coordinators are going to possibly TRIPLE team Calvin Johnson as he’s not going to keep scoring two TDs every week and Nate Burleson will get in the endzone.

Nate Washington vs DEN – $5900 – Yes, I’m as surprised as you are while I’m writing this but there is another guy that lines up on the other side of the field from Kenny Britt, that’s Nate Washington. Washington is 18th overall in targets with 13 catches and 83yrds/game this year. Just like the Nate above with a star-WR on the other side and with TEN struggling ground game in Chris Johnson, Nate Washington is poised to have a good game vs DEN the 24th passing D. (Others to consider: DeSean Jackson vs NYG – $7100, Mike Wallace @ IND – $7800)

Fred Davis @ DAL – $6100 – This might be the last week we see Fred Davis below $6500. He has 11 catches for 191 yards and a touchdown in two games. DAL ranks 15th vs TEs and what is likely going to be the year of the TE in the NFL. (Others to consider: Dustin Keller @ OAK – $6200, Evan Moore vs MIA- $5100, Jermaine Gresham vs SF – $5100, Tony Scheffler @ MIN – $5100)

I really shouldn’t have to tell you to not spend to much on a kicker but FanDuel has some really ridiculous kicker values so some quick picks: Nick Novak vs KC – $5100, Dan Bailey vs WAS – $5200, Phil Dawson vs MIA – $5200.

Most of the defenses are priced the same but at $5000, the Charges D vs a hapless KC, is my choice for most of my teams this week.

NFL Week 2 FanDuel wrap up.

As you can see from my FanDuel player value post: here. Quite a few of them came in.

Stafford scored 26.86 (Rex Grossmann 17.83, Big Ben 16.72, Ryan Fitzpatrick 23.86)
Tim Hightower 11.1
Fred Jackson: 27
Jahvid Best 27.3 (James Starks 13, Carnell Williams 5.5, Shonn Greene 12.5)
Nate Burleson 12.8 (Vincent Jackson 34.2, Mario Manningham 7.1, Anquan Boldin 6.1)
Owen Daniels: 10 (Jermaine Gresham 1.8, Fred Davis 17.6)

Carnell Williams, Manningham, Boldin and Gresham were total failures. You have to get 10+ from everyone.

Stafford, Fred Jackson, Jahvid Best, VJax, RyFitz, Fred Davis were absolute crushers and appeared in the line ups for most of the big tournament winners.

I am learning as I go here as this new to me. I entered too many tournaments looking for the big score and bubbled many of them. I did win most of my HUs, except a $25 vs a friend who picked a crushing team.

He had the core of my team, PLUS two of my “OTHER” choices that came in, and just crushed me. For reference his score of 186.46 would make the top 10 of all the big multi-entry tournaments.

I will be entering more HU, 5-player, 10-player tournaments. I had an interesting night in baseball tonight and will try to blog about some of my baseball strategies soon.

I loaded up on the Red Sox and crushed this 10-man:

And entered a Rookies “load” team that failed miserably, however, there is a lot of dead money!

Until next time,

Week 2 NFL Fanduel Values

I basically broke even last week in football I waged $117 and won $98, made up quick with it on a very good baseball day last week.

I had a busy week and this post is a bit late but here are my quick picks for Fanduel value:

Matthew Stafford vs KC – DET is at home, KCs defense is decimated with its recent loss of Eric Berry, SS who had 87 tackles and 4 INTs last season. Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 4TDs last week, its the new best show on turf, watch for a huge game from Stafford at $7900. (Others to consider: Rex Grossman – $6500, Big Ben – $8500, Ryan Fitzpatrick – $7900)

Tim Hightower vs ARI- 25 carries last week vs a decent Giants run-D, 72 yards and a TD. Now he faces his old team at home and Arizona’s defense gave up a lot of yards last week. Granted most were in the air to a rookie QB but WAS is a much more balanced team. – $6500

Fred Jackson vs OAK- FJax had 112 yrds on 20 attempts as the Bills tore up KC, he gets the same amount of touches and a TD this week a the amazing price of $5900.

Jahvid Best vs KC – What can I say, another DET player vs KC. See FJax above with his results at KC. Best is home, in the dome, and has great value at $6700. (Other RBs to consider: James Starks @CAR – $6500, Carnell Williams @NYG – $6100, Shonn Greene vs JAC – $6100)

Nate Burleson vs KC – Obviously I’m all-in for Detroit players vs KC. You actually have hope KC scores a few time before DET gets up too much and grinds out the clock. But at $5900 you can pick some higher end RBs instead. (Others to consider: Vincent Jackson @ NE – $6300, Mario Manningham vs STL – $6300, Anquan Bolidin @ TEN – $6500)

Owen Daniels @ MIA- I nearly fell out of my seat when I saw the lovely price of $5100. MIA-D was just ripped apart by TFB and 198 yards and two TDs was given up to the two tight ends of the Patriots. On top of that, WR2 for Houston, Kevin Walter, is likely out. Should be a great game here, especially at $5100. (Others to consider: Jermaine Gresham @ DEN – $5300, Fred Davis vs ARI – $5500)

My new obsession (beware addictive…)

There is a new trend in the fantasy football market, instead of season long fantasy football, you can wager (yes legally), on daily fantasy sports.

In fact, good ol’ Billy First, actually put an exemption for wagering on Fantasy Sports right into the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA)

§ 5362. Definitions
In this subchapter:
The term ‘bet or wager’—
(A) means the staking or risking by any person of something of value upon the outcome of a contest of others, a sporting event, or a game subject to chance, upon an agreement or understanding that the person or another person will receive something of value in the event of a certain outcome;
(B) includes the purchase of a chance or opportunity to win a lottery or other prize (which opportunity to win is predominantly subject to chance);
(C) includes any scheme of a type described in section 3702 of title 28;
(D) includes any instructions or information pertaining to the establishment or movement of funds by the bettor or customer in, to, or from an account with the business of betting or wagering; and
(E) does not include-

(ix) participation in any fantasy or simulation sports game or educational game or contest in which (if the game or contest involves a team or teams) no fantasy or simulation sports team is based on the current membership of an actual team that is a member of an amateur or professional sports organization (as those terms are defined in section 3701 of title 28) and that meets the following conditions:
(I) All prizes and awards offered to winning participants are established and made known to the participants in advance of the game or contest and their value is not determined by the number of participants or the amount of any fees paid by those participants.
(II) All winning outcomes reflect the relative knowledge and skill of the participants and are determined predominantly by accumulated statistical results of the performance of individuals (athletes in the case of sports events) in multiple real-world sporting or other events.
(III) No winning outcome is based
(aa) on the score, pointspread, or any performance or performances of any single real world team or any combination of such teams; or
(bb) solely on any single performance of an individual athlete in any single real-world sporting or other event.

You can read the entire UIGEA bioler plate here.

So I have spent the last few weeks playing daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. The system is fairly easy, you pick options using a salary cap system. There are HU, 5-man, 10-man and multiplayer tournaments. I deposited $100, and have already withdrawn $150 (which I received near instantly) using my PayPal account.

Probably best to show by example, so here are my lineups for this weekend in to different salary caps:

Salary Cap: $60k

Salary Cap: $60k

Salary Cap: $55k (expert)

Hopefully my skills will shine this weekend, good luck everyone!